
Reuters reports that Russian crop losses and expected Indian wheat imports could together cut global wheat supplies by as much as 17 million tons versus earlier expectations. The shortfall equals about 8% of USDA's 2024-25 world wheat export forecast.
A tighter exportable supply from Russia and stronger Indian import demand would reduce available wheat for importers and support global wheat prices.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.