ECB holds rates steady, signals further hikes if inflation persists; Euro gains

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jul 24, 2026ECB holds rates steady: Why is the Euro rising?+1.3%
• Mar 19, 2026VIEW ECB holds rates steady as Middle East war re-ignites inflation fears | Reuters+0.5%
• Dec 18, 2025EUR/USD rebounds as ECB holds rates and US inflation cools+0.3%
• Oct 31, 2023Euro Holds Gains After Eurozone Inflation Comes In Below 3.0% But Core Remains 'Sticky'+1.2%
• Feb 5, 2026ECB warns of stronger euro impact, holds rates+0.7%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Dec 18, 2025EUR/USD rebounds as ECB holds rates and US inflation cools-0.6%
• Jul 29, 2026Gold trims gain as Fed holds rates, signals hike support-0.9%
• Sep 30, 2022Dollar gains on euro after inflation data, sterling falls-0.2%
• Feb 5, 2026ECB warns of stronger euro impact, holds rates-0.7%
• May 23, 2022Stocks rally as euro gains on likely rate hikes-0.9%