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The ECB held rates steady but kept the door open to a hike in September as energy prices threatened to keep inflation above target. Markets priced around a 95% chance of a September 25 basis-point hike, and EUR/USD edged up to about 1.1385 as the US conducted another night of strikes on Iran.
Hawkish ECB expectations support the euro and soften the dollar, which can help US-priced feed commodities, while ongoing Iran strikes keep energy prices and freight risk elevated.
fxstreet.comLallalit SrijandornJul 24, 2026After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
