EUR/USD rebounds as ECB holds rates and US inflation cools

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Sep 7, 2017ECB cites inflation-dampening euro rate as policy factor+0.2%
• Apr 30, 2026EUR/USD advances as ECB holds rates, Dollar softens on mixed data-0.8%
• May 31, 2024Eurozone inflation accelerates in May: Are ECB rate cuts in doubt? | Euronews+0.3%
• Jul 31, 2024EUR/USD rises to 1.0830 as Eurozone Inflation accelerates, Fed policy eyed — Octa-0.5%
• May 31, 2024Dollar Drops as Bond Yields Fall on Hopeful US Inflation Report+0.3%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Apr 30, 2026European Central Bank keeps rates on hold as inflation jumps+0.5%
• Sep 7, 2017ECB cites inflation-dampening euro rate as policy factor-0.4%
• Apr 30, 2026EUR/USD advances as ECB holds rates, Dollar softens on mixed data+0.5%
• Mar 19, 2026VIEW ECB holds rates steady as Middle East war re-ignites inflation fears | Reuters+0.5%
• Dec 14, 2023ECB Keep Rates Steady with Tentative Inflation Downgrades, EUR/USD Rises+1.5%