ECB cites inflation-dampening euro rate as policy factor

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Dec 18, 2025EUR/USD rebounds as ECB holds rates and US inflation cools+0.3%
• Jul 31, 2024EUR/USD rises to 1.0830 as Eurozone Inflation accelerates, Fed policy eyed — Octa+1.1%
• May 31, 2024Eurozone inflation accelerates in May: Are ECB rate cuts in doubt? | Euronews+0.4%
• Sep 17, 2021Euro-Dollar Rate Heavy Despite Leaked ECB Inflation Forecasts-0.2%
• Sep 1, 2026Euro zone inflation rises above 3%, cementing ECB rate hike bets | Reuters+0.1%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Dec 18, 2025EUR/USD rebounds as ECB holds rates and US inflation cools-0.6%
• Jul 31, 2024EUR/USD rises to 1.0830 as Eurozone Inflation accelerates, Fed policy eyed — Octa-0.5%
• May 31, 2024Eurozone inflation accelerates in May: Are ECB rate cuts in doubt? | Euronews+0.3%
• Sep 17, 2021Euro-Dollar Rate Heavy Despite Leaked ECB Inflation Forecasts+0.2%
• Aug 31, 2021Euro Looks for Direction on Red-Hot Inflation Ahead of ECB Meeting-0.2%