Brent crude rose 2.4% to $117.64 a barrel after briefly touching $118, its highest level since April. The move followed Hormuz strikes and a US threat to hit Iran.
WTI settled at $104.12 after gaining about 2%.
Disruption risk in the Strait of Hormuz threatens energy flows and raises input and freight costs across agriculture, supporting grain and oilseed prices.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.