EXCLUSIVE: Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom

After 398 past bullish macro events, USDCNY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2023EXCLUSIVE: Chinese exporters using currency swaps to retain dollars as yuan sags | Reuters+0.6%
• Dec 6, 2022China's yuan slips, traders wary of reopening risks | Reuters+0.2%
• Jan 17, 2025Markets are betting China will let yuan fall as Trump takes power, but not much | Reuters-1.2%
• Oct 29, 2018China's yuan finishes onshore trading at weakest since 2008 By Reuters-0.8%
• Nov 13, 2020Chinese yuan after Biden election win, Trump's trade war-0.4%

After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2023EXCLUSIVE: Chinese exporters using currency swaps to retain dollars as yuan sags | Reuters-2.6%
• Jan 20, 2025A weakening yuan tests Beijing's resolve as Trump tariff threats loom+1.1%
• Nov 12, 2024China’s yuan weakens to 3-1/2-month low as Trump tariff threat weighs - Markets - Business Recorder-0.2%
• Sep 28, 2018NEXEN | Reuters Insider - Asia Insight: Yuan eases to 1-month low, set for longest monthly losing streak since 1994+0.5%
• Apr 8, 2025China's yuan hits 2023 lows on signs PBOC is tolerant of some weakness | Reuters+6.0%

After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jan 20, 2025A weakening yuan tests Beijing's resolve as Trump tariff threats loom+0.3%
• Nov 12, 2024China’s yuan weakens to 3-1/2-month low as Trump tariff threat weighs - Markets - Business Recorder-0.5%
• Sep 3, 2018Trade war could force heavier hand from China on yuan+0.9%
• Jul 26, 2022Inflation-Hit Consumers Are Trading Down to Chicken From Beef - Bloomberg+6.6%
• Nov 28, 2024Chinese yuan to hit record lows as U.S. tariff threat mounts, investment banks forecast+1.1%