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Yuan forward pricing, interest rate derivatives and analyst forecasts indicate China is allowing a slow depreciation of the yuan against a broadly stronger dollar ahead of Trump's second term. Sell-side analysts see a 5-6% decline from current levels by year end.
The yuan has hovered near 16-month lows and has fallen for three straight years.
A weaker yuan makes Chinese buyers less price-sensitive to dollar-priced imports only if it is offset elsewhere; a gradual depreciation tends to reduce Chinese import demand appetite for US feed grains and meal at the margin, while supporting Brazilian and other competing origins.
reuters.comJan 17, 2025After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
