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A Reuters poll of 60 strategists found 28 expect the yuan to weaken to 7 per dollar or further within a year, the highest count since July 2017. The yuan hit its weakest level since the global financial crisis at 6.9748 per dollar.
Expectations of further yuan weakness signal softer Chinese import demand for US farm goods, since a weaker currency raises the dollar cost of imports. This is bearish for US soybeans and feed commodities.
reuters.comVivek MishraNov 1, 2018After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
