
FAO projects 2024 global cereal output at 2,848 million tonnes, down 0.4% from the previous year, mainly because of lower maize output from adverse weather in South America, Europe and southern Africa. India's cereal production is forecast to rise to 380.6 million tonnes, and East Asian rice exports are projected to climb 6% year on year, led by India.
Higher Asian rice output and exports add supply to the market, which is bearish for rice, while the maize shortfall is supportive for feed grain prices.
After 87 past bearish report events, RICE moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.