
The USDA has barred Mexican cattle imports since November 2024 after New World screwworm was found on a cow near the Mexico-Guatemala border. Texas-bound cattle worth millions have been held in pens, and the stockyard in Sunland Park, New Mexico, now holds only dozens of head versus 5,000 previously.
Lost feeder cattle supply tightens the US calf and feeder pipeline, supporting already record cattle prices and likely pushing beef prices higher for consumers.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.