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New World screwworm has spread north through Mexico over the past year and a half, and the USDA has confirmed cases in more than 30 cattle, sheep and goats in Texas over the past month. Mexico has supplied ranchers with sample kits and cross-border control efforts are ongoing.
Sonora has not yet reported cases.
Ongoing screwworm detections in US livestock raise the risk of further movement restrictions and herd losses, which would keep cattle supplies tight and support prices.
vpm.orgNina KravinskyJul 19, 2026After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
