OSU economist Derrell Peel says the import halt will remove the last six weeks or so of Mexican cattle imports and cut annual imports by about 18%. He estimates 250,000 to 300,000 fewer head will be imported by year-end, a number small relative to the US calf crop but noticeable in a tight market.
A cut of roughly 250,000 to 300,000 feeder head in a tight supply market supports feeder cattle prices and may trim feedlot placements.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.