
Mexican cattle are being tested for New World screwworm at the US border as containment efforts continue. The parasitic fly larva has threatened the $113 billion US cattle industry, and border closures have cut off a major source of feeder cattle.
Continued border restrictions keep Mexican feeder supply tight, which supports US cattle prices. Any new detection could extend closures and push prices higher.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.