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New World screwworm cases are accelerating in Mexico, with almost 700 detections reported this month according to USDA. The US has largely kept its live cattle import halt from Mexico in place since last fall.
A prolonged border closure keeps feeder cattle supply tight for US feedlots, supporting cattle and beef prices while the import halt continues.
bloomberg.comIlena PengMay 1, 2026After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Accelerating screwworm detections in Mexico (~700 this month) reinforce the import halt, keeping feeder supply tight and bullish for cattle futures.
