The US suspended live animal imports from Mexico on May 11, 2025, halting feeder cattle shipments because screwworm flies were spreading into southern Mexico. Mexican feeder cattle had averaged about 5% of US feedlot placements over the past decade, with up to 20,000 head a week in normal spring and fall seasons.
Feeder placements will fall during peak seasonal import periods, tightening feeder supplies and supporting feeder cattle prices.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.