
USDA confirmed a New World screwworm case in Texas after markets closed on a Wednesday, and feeder cattle futures hit the daily limit higher the next day. Live cattle rose $2.55 to $4.80 and the nearby August feeder contract gained $5.475 for the week.
Screwworm in the US threatens herd movement and supply, lifting cattle prices on expectations of tighter future supplies and movement restrictions.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.