Analysis: Exchange rate caught between external factors and fiscal risks

After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jun 14, 2022Analysis: Exchange rate unlikely to mean trouble for Brazil’s Central Bank+0.7%
• Jul 28, 2025Dollar approaches R$5,60 again, driven by external factors after agreement between the US and EU | Brasil 247-0.4%
• Apr 17, 2024Haddad blames external factors for weakened real-1.4%
• Oct 1, 2026Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank-3.5%
• May 15, 2020Brazil Exchange Rate May 2020 - FocusEconomics-5.4%

After 117 past bearish macro events, SBM moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Oct 22, 2021Unofficial exchange rate shows Argentina's de facto devaluation — MercoPress+1.5%
• Oct 1, 2026Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank+3.2%
• Oct 29, 2026The sharp fall in the real exchange rate has caused soybean meal prices to collapse in Brazil and China, which is increasing pressure on prices in Ukraine.-3.3%
• Jun 30, 2023Brazilian Real Technical Analysis: USD/BRL, EUR/BRL+1.6%
• May 14, 2018IMF says supports Argentina floating exchange rate as peso tumbles-1.7%