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Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad blamed external factors, including strong US economic data, inflation and Middle East tensions after Iran's attack on Israel, for the weaker real. The real rose 1.64% to R$5.2697 per dollar, its highest close since March 2023, after the government set a new fiscal target forecasting a zero result for 2025.
Analysts warned gross debt will keep rising unless the primary surplus approaches 1% of GDP.
A weaker real lowers the dollar cost of Brazilian soybean, corn and meal exports, supporting Brazilian export competitiveness and sometimes weighing on global prices. Higher oil prices from the Middle East tensions also raise input and freight costs.
valorinternational.globo.comAlexandra BiccaApr 17, 2024After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Published a day after the window, it attributes the real's weakness to strong US data, inflation and Middle East tensions, plus fiscal concerns, which supports the drivers of the move, though its reported real gain on 04-17 is outside the window and its text is internally inconsistent.
