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India issued its first urea tender of 2025 for 1.5 million tonnes, with shipment spread into June. The announcement alone lowered urea prices by $7 to $12 per tonne.
Ammonium sulfate and nitrate prices were little changed, and world MAP prices had risen $25 to $30 per tonne since early March.
The tender's long two-plus month delivery window is pressuring urea prices lower, while rising phosphate prices raise the cost of DAP and MAP. Buyers of phosphate-based inputs should expect higher costs even as nitrogen eases.
wrightonthemarket.comWright TeamMar 30, 2025After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
India's first 2025 urea tender of 1.5 Mt marks the demand return that sets up price recovery, though the announcement initially lowered prices and the timing is a few days ahead of the move.
