
China's fertilizer exports rose 33.1% year on year in January to May 2025 to 12.84 million tons, led by ammonium sulphate. Urea exports fell 82.9% and DAP exports fell 91% over the same period.
Sharp drops in Chinese urea and DAP exports remove a major source of global supply, supporting prices for those nutrients.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.