
Victorian farmers face fertilizer shortages and higher prices after China's ban on exports from state-owned producers. Urea and phosphate prices have nearly tripled from a year earlier, and DAP is out of stock in Victoria.
Distributors are sourcing from other countries.
Australia imports much of its fertilizer, so the loss of Chinese supply and high gas costs drive up local prices and limit availability. Tight input supply could cut application rates and affect crop yields and feed grain output.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.