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Indian fertilizer companies are waiting before buying after China banned urea exports, with the government negotiating supply deals on their behalf. Stocks in the pipeline are said to cover urea demand until mid-December, and DAP and potash until December.
Some companies fear the Chinese ban could push up DAP and muriate of potash prices, as happened during the 2021 ban.
Because India is heavily import-dependent, its delay in buying limits near-term urea demand, but a Chinese export ban could still lift DAP and potash prices if supply tightens further.
thehindubusinessline.comPrabhudatta MishraSep 8, 2023After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
