
EU tariffs on Russian fertiliser imports started at 40 euros per tonne for urea and nitrogen in July and will rise to 315 euros per tonne by July 2028. World Bank data show urea rose 26.5% to $496 per tonne from May to July, and DAP climbed to $736 per tonne in July, up 10% since May.
Tariffs on a major import source raise European nitrogen and phosphate costs and tighten supply to the bloc. Higher European fertilizer prices can shift global nitrogen and phosphate demand and support prices in other origins.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.