
Fertilizer tariffs on imports into the US are changing fall pricing dynamics, according to ADM's Jake Niederer. Phosphate prices have risen well over $100 per tonne in Canada, and a preliminary assessment of duties on Russian and Moroccan products is expected around late November.
Expected duties on Russian and Moroccan phosphate would reduce import competition and push up North American fertilizer prices, affecting fall pre-purchase decisions and spring input costs for crop producers.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.