
RealAgriculture reports that fertilizer prices remain high even as crop prices soften, with urea elevated, UAN at record-high levels, and anhydrous relatively cheaper. China has cut phosphate exports nearly in half, European nitrogen output remains well below normal, and potash prices are stable.
Tight nitrogen and phosphate supply keeps input costs high for feed grain and oilseed production, which can support crop prices into 2026. Potash stability limits upside across the fertilizer complex.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.