US phosphate prices reached their highest levels in North America since 2012 and have roughly doubled per ton since August 2020. Mosaic's countervailing duty petition against Morocco and Russia, the two largest importers, caused them to halt shipments.
Farmers face sticker shock ahead of spring planting.
Countervailing duties on the major phosphate import sources cut US supply and keep DAP and phosphate prices high into spring demand, squeezing grower margins.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.