
Fertilizer prices resumed climbing in February 2021 after a brief dip, with urea up $100 per tonne and DAP at New Orleans up $145 per tonne since early January. Strong crop prices and China limiting its fertilizer exports to protect domestic supply tightened global markets.
US import duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate further reduced North American supply.
Chinese export restrictions and US duties tighten global nitrogen, phosphate and potash supply, so farmers face higher input costs for the coming seeding season.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.