
A trader sold 7,000 tonnes of Indonesian granular urea to a Philippine importer at $400/t for November loading, about $7/t above recent regional trades. Urea inventories in Thailand and Vietnam are high, and importers have not been buying in the past month.
The firmer deal price hints at some Southeast Asian demand ahead of the November application season, but high regional stocks limit upside. The price effect is small and depends on weather and crop prices.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.