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Global urea activity stayed subdued through November as buyers awaited results of an Indian urea tender. The November 26 tender filled only 1.4 million tonnes of a 2.5 million tonne requirement, with India struggling to secure volume as Chinese exporters stayed largely out.
Chinese phosphate exports were down sharply over the first ten months of the year, keeping phosphate markets stable, while DTN retail data showed most fertilizer prices rising in early November.
Under-filled Indian tenders and limited Chinese export availability keep global nitrogen and phosphate supply tight, supporting fertilizer prices. Feed buyers should expect input costs to stay firm, which weighs on feed margins.
genesisfertilizers.comRod ChometaNov 28, 2025After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Indian tender on Nov 26 filled only 1.4 of 2.5 million tonnes with Chinese exporters largely absent, signaling weak global demand and buyers holding back, which is bearish for urea prices ahead of Dec 1.
