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Fertiliser prices rose sharply from mid-January 2021, with US Gulf DAP up 36% year to date. The rally was driven by demand from farmers restocking nutrients and by supply constraints, including a US Commerce countervailing duty on phosphate imports.
Prices are expected to ease by the end of the second quarter as Northern Hemisphere demand slows.
Higher phosphate and nitrogen costs raise input expenses for grain and feed producers, while import duties tighten North American supply and keep phosphate prices elevated.
theland.com.auWes Lefroy, Rabobank Senior Agricultural AnalystFeb 18, 2021After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
