
Australian commentary says DAP prices near A$950/tonne are the highest since March 2023 as China, the US and Morocco tighten phosphate exports. Global phosphate supply is limited, and Rabobank's affordability index shows phosphate is poor value for farmers.
Tight phosphate exports from major suppliers keep DAP and MAP costs elevated, which may dampen global phosphate demand but keeps input costs high for producers.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.