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Australian MAP and DAP fertiliser prices jumped sharply, with world ammonium phosphate values up US$120/t since December, the largest rise in many years. A local trader reported quotes moving from $595 to $675/t ex-port plus freight.
Supply was diverted to the US after the US investigated subsidised gas used for ammonia and raised tariffs on Russian and Moroccan imports.
Tight global phosphate supply and diverted cargoes raise input costs for feed and crop producers and are expected to keep prices elevated and volatile. Higher fertiliser costs can also push up future grain production costs.
theland.com.auJamie BrownJan 28, 2021Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Directly reports a sharp DAP/MAP price surge of about US$120/t since December, driven by supply diverted to the US after tariffs on Russian and Moroccan imports, which is a trade-flow mechanism that fits the timing of the move.
Published 2021-01-28, just before the move: reports a sharp jump in world ammonium phosphate prices (up US$120/t since December) as supply was diverted to the US after the subsidised-gas investigation and tariffs on Russian and Moroccan imports, a trade-flow supply squeeze that plausibly drove DAP higher.
World ammonium phosphate prices rose US$120/t since December as supply was diverted to the US because of tariffs on Russian and Moroccan product, a trade-flow driver of tightness.
