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DTN reports that 2021 phosphorus supply was limited by US countervailing duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate, and by China's decision not to export phosphate until at least June 2022. China accounts for about 30% of global phosphate trade.
Demand is expected to rise in 2022.
With China's exports halted and demand growing, tight phosphate supply is likely to keep DAP and rock prices elevated, raising fertilizer costs for grain and oilseed production that feeds into feed prices.
dtnpf.comRuss QuinnJan 1, 2022After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
