
Global urea climbed to $453 per metric ton on September 14, extending a rebound from the summer correction. Profercy's Nitrogen Index rose 6.3 points in the week ending September 8, with Brazil offers above $460 CFR.
Active buying in Latin America and China's restricted 3.3 million tonne export quota are tightening granular supply.
Tight seaborne urea supply and strong Latin American buying point to firmer nitrogen prices heading into fall application. An upcoming India tender could push prices higher still.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.