Australian fertiliser spot urea is around A$800/t, up from roughly A$650/t last spring, with China's export ban until April supporting prices. Growers and resellers are working to manage volatility without holding large stocks in a falling market.
Northern Queensland and New South Wales are most exposed to price swings because of mixed summer and winter cropping.
Chinese export restrictions keep Australian urea elevated, raising production costs for Australian grain and feed grain growers and keeping import demand firm.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.