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A briefing covering August to early September 2025 says India's urea tender drew a record 5.6 million tons of bids at prices near $462/t CFR, a drop of nearly $70/t. Iranian, Black Sea and Brazilian urea prices fell in anticipation, and Ethiopia and Bangladesh launched sizeable DAP, urea and potash tenders.
The sharp drop in urea and tender-driven demand signals lower nitrogen input costs ahead, but the lower urea prices also support phosphate and potash demand in import markets.
kelewell.deFernando ChenSep 8, 2025After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
