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IFPRI reports that fertilizer prices have fallen from 2022 peaks but remain above pre-pandemic levels, with urea about 50% and phosphate about double January 2020 levels. The authors warn that persistently high phosphate prices pose food security risks.
Elevated phosphate and urea costs keep fertilizer affordability tight for farmers, a structural backdrop rather than a new price shock.
ifpri.orgDelphine Leconte-Demarsy, Brendan RiceMar 20, 2025After 26 past neutral report events, UREA moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
