UnDisciplined: Why aren't we using climate phases to predict crop yields?

After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Dec 5, 2018Agrometeorological applications to predict the influence of climate on crops+0.2%
• Mar 29, 2022Improving Crop Yield Predictions with Satellite Assist - NASA Science+2.7%
• Jan 5, 2021Dry weather expected to keep pressuring Argentine soy, corn yields - Markets - Business Recorder+3.1%
• Dec 7, 2022Corn Yield Losses to ‘Edge Effect’ Elevated by Contrary Micro-Climate and Weather Patterns - AgWeb+1.6%
• Apr 3, 2018Study: Climate effects on ag yields vary by location, crop+0.7%

After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jan 5, 2021Dry weather expected to keep pressuring Argentine soy, corn yields - Markets - Business Recorder+4.4%
• Apr 3, 2018Study: Climate effects on ag yields vary by location, crop+1.1%
• Jul 22, 2021ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields | NOAA Climate.gov-0.5%
• Jul 14, 2022Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion-8.8%
• Oct 14, 2021Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion+4.2%

After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Dec 5, 2018Agrometeorological applications to predict the influence of climate on crops-0.1%
• Apr 24, 2018English Portal - Towards a better understanding of the impact of extreme climate events on wheat yields+3.4%
• Jun 24, 2020Winter climate outlook hard to predict with mixed signals | Farm Online | ACT+0.3%
• Sep 16, 2016Australia's wheat crop threatened as La Nina climate indicator rises: analysts+0.2%
• Jul 22, 2021ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields | NOAA Climate.gov-1.2%

After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2021Crop sowing lags in India on scanty rains, raises concerns over yields | Economy & Policy News - Business Standard+0.7%
• Oct 20, 2017La Niña Watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center+1.0%
• May 5, 2018Long Range Weather Forecasts are Getting Better | USDA Climate Hubs+1.2%
• May 2, 2017Probability of El Niño this year at least 50% – Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre+3.2%
• Feb 28, 2019CSI ENSO: The case of the missing central Pacific rainfall | NOAA Climate.gov-4.2%