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NOAA's Climate.gov blog examines why the expected atmospheric response to a warm tropical Pacific was missing for months. In fall 2018 cloudiness over the central Pacific near the Date Line stayed near normal rather than showing the usual El Niño rainfall.
The atmosphere and ocean have now coupled, and NOAA has declared weak El Niño conditions.
This is an explanatory piece on the forecasting of El Niño and does not add a new supply shock. It helps buyers judge how reliable ENSO forecasts are for crop-weather risk.
climate.govNat JohnsonFeb 28, 2019After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
