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Corn closed slightly higher after the June WASDE trimmed U.S. old-crop corn stocks, while soybeans fell on a rumor that EPA would set biomass-based diesel volumes at only 4.65 billion gallons. USDA left South American crop estimates unchanged even as CONAB raised its Brazil corn forecast.
Soybean weakness on the biofuel rumor signals that a low RVO would cut soybean oil demand and crush margins, which lowers meal output and pressures soybean meal prices. Corn strength reflects the tighter U.S. carryout.
agweb.comJun 12, 2025After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On June 12 a rumor that EPA would set biomass-based diesel volumes at only 4.65 billion gallons drove soybean-complex sentiment, and the market's sharp reaction to biofuel policy headlines is the plausible mechanism behind the 2.58% move that day.
