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A farmdoc daily analysis of CME futures and cash prices from 2001 to 2021 finds cash prices fall more often than futures in years of declining prices. It gives probability estimates for October corn and soybean cash prices, with corn at $7.59 having a 25% chance and soybeans at or below $12 a 20% chance.
Historical seasonal patterns suggest substantial downside risk for cash corn and soybean prices from May to October, which matters for feed budgeting and forward purchasing.
agweb.comMay 28, 2022After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
