
The March WASDE report left US soybean ending stocks unchanged and kept Argentine and Brazilian forecasts steady, but cut the 2024/25 soybean oil biofuel use estimate. The USDA also lowered the average farm price and raised China's crush estimate.
A lower biofuel use estimate reduces expected soyoil demand, which is bearish for soybean oil, while higher Chinese crush supports soymeal demand.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.