
China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs pledged at a July 23 meeting with major hog producers to cut breeding sows, control hog slaughter weights and curb new capacity. Soymeal and rapeseed meal futures fell the next day, and cash hog prices have hovered below 15 yuan per kg.
Lower Chinese hog numbers would reduce future soymeal demand from the world's largest feed buyer, weighing on soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices and export demand.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 34 past bearish policy events, HOGS moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.3%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.