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USDA raised its 2025 US wheat production estimate to 54 Mt, about 1.6 Mt above prior estimates and trade expectations, and 1 September wheat stocks came in at 57.7 Mt, above trade estimates. Major exporters outside Ukraine also raised production, and CBOT, Paris and London wheat futures fell to new contract lows.
Larger US and global wheat supplies and higher US stocks add to export competition and keep wheat prices under pressure.
frontierag.co.ukOct 2, 2025After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
