
Chinese importers had not bought soybeans from the US autumn harvest for the first time in more than 20 years. US farmers are storing crops in hopes of price recovery from around a five-year low while facing rising costs.
With China absent, US soybean demand relies on other importers, keeping US prices depressed and encouraging farmer storage that delays supply. This keeps the price outlook for US soybeans and meal weak until export demand returns.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.