
China's two largest dairy producers, Yili and Mengniu, have reportedly cut soymeal in cattle feed by 20% under government direction. Beijing is also promoting domestic alternatives to US soybeans as a national security priority, and farmers are adopting the change to cut costs.
Lower soymeal inclusion in Chinese feed reduces import demand for soybeans and soybean meal, which is bearish for US and Brazilian soy complex prices. The shift could persist beyond the current trade dispute.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.