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U.S. milk production in September reached 18.99 billion pounds, up 4.0 percent year over year, with the dairy herd at its largest since 1993. CME block cheddar fell to $1.54 per pound in mid-November, its lowest since April 2024.
Record output and a rapidly expanding herd are pushing cheese and milk prices lower, a strongly bearish signal for dairy returns and feed demand.
en.edairynews.comDamián MoraisNov 26, 2025After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
US milk output up 4% with the largest herd since 1993 and block cheddar at its lowest since April 2024 point to a supply glut weighing on Class III.
