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USDA's June Milk Production report showed US milk output up 3.3% year-on-year, above expectations and the biggest annual gain since 2021. California returned to growth, and May was revised up to 2.3%.
Spot butter fell while 2025 butter futures rallied on strong export demand.
Output growth well above forecasts adds supply to a market already ample, which pressures milk prices and dairy values.
dairyherd.comEver.AgJul 22, 2025After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
