
USDA's February WASDE raised its 2021 US milk production forecast to 227.4 billion pounds, up 700 million from the prior month, with 2020 output estimated at 223.1 billion pounds. The agency cut its 2021 all-milk price forecast by about $1.15/cwt versus 2020, mainly on lower Class III prices, and expects higher feed costs.
Dairy cow numbers near a 25-year high point to more milk supply, which pushes Class III and all-milk prices lower and weighs on dairy-linked demand for feed. Higher expected feed costs squeeze the margin for buyers of feed ingredients.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.